CBO: Republicans face Medicaid budget challenge

Reminder: The House passed a budget plan that would require $880 billion in cuts from the Energy and Commerce Committee. The bill is the first step towards a reconciliation package that Republicans aim to pass along party lines to implement Trump’s agenda (i.e., border, tax, energy policy).

What’s new: The Congressional Budget Office released a report finding that the government spends $381 billion on programs other than Medicaid/CHIP that are under the jurisdiction of the Energy and Commerce Committee.

• Of the $381 billion, more than half is already paid for. So even if Republicans eliminate every program under the committee other than Medicaid and CHIP, it would only be able to save a maximum of $135 billion.

Why it’s important: This means Republicans cannot achieve their goal of slashing $2 trillion in federal spending over the next decade, including $880 billion under the Energy and Commerce Committee, without cutting Medicaid.

The response: A new poll found that cutting Medicaid would be deeply unpopular.

• Only 17% of adults want to see Medicaid funding decreased. Majorities of Democrats, Republicans, independents, Trump voters, and adults living in rural areas all say Medicaid funding should increase or be kept the same.
• About half say they or a family member has received help from Medicaid at some point, including over 4 in 10 Republicans and 2024 Trump voters. 97% say Medicaid is at least somewhat important for people in their local community.
• 62% of adults support work requirements, but support drops to 32% when they hear that most people on Medicaid are already working and many would risk losing coverage because of the burden of proving eligibility through paperwork.
• 59% oppose eliminating the 90% federal match rate for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansion population. When supporters of eliminating the enhanced match hear that most states would not be able to make up the funding and that 20 million people would likely become uninsured, support drops from 40% to 24%.

What’s coming: The House and Senate have to pass identical budget plans to move forward. But Senate Republicans’ work to resolve differences with the House blueprint will slip until at least late March as it works on an appropriations bill to avoid a government shutdown on March 14.

Take action: Reminder to send a letter to your members of Congress urging them to protect Medicaid!