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The Congressional Budget Office released a new analysis finding that the reconciliation bill passed by the House would lead to nearly 11 million people losing health insurance.
- Another 5.1 million people would become uninsured from a combination of expiring Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies and new ACA rules that Trump’s health department proposed.
- The bottom line: In total, 16 million people could become uninsured over a decade. That’s the same number who were at risk of losing insurance during the attempted ACA repeal in 2017.
The details:
- The CBO score of the House-passed reconciliation bill predicts that of the 11 million people that would lose coverage under the bill, about 7.8 million people would lose Medicaid coverage, with millions more losing ACA coverage.
- The proposed work requirements in Medicaid are estimated to cause 4.8 million adults to lose coverage.
- If the enhanced ACA subsidies expire, the cost of ACA plans would go up and about 4.2 million people would become uninsured.
The larger context: The bill could represent the largest cuts to federal health care programs in history.
What’s coming: The Senate is now considering the bill and has the opportunity to make changes. It aims to pass its version by July 4.
Read more: 16 million could lose health insurance under GOP policies, CBO finds; 10.9 million people would lose health insurance under Trump’s tax bill, CBO projects; House GOP gets megabill’s official price tag: $2.4T; CBO: Nearly 11 million could go uninsured under megabill
Published
June 2025