The main point: For the first time in more than a year, provisional CDC data shows an increase (of 1,400) in fatal overdoses in the 12-month period ending January 2025.

The slight increase suggests the U.S. saw more overdose deaths in January 2025 than it did in January 2024.

The numbers:

The 82,138 deaths in the 12-month period ending January 2025 would be an increase from the period ending December 2024. But it would still be a 26% decline from the year prior (January 2023-January 2024) and far below the peak of 114,664 fatal overdoses recorded in August 2023.
But: After 17 months of declines and an unprecedented 27% drop in 2024, this report is troubling.

The details: According to Nabarun Dasgupta, who studies overdose trends at the University of North Carolina, his analysis of the latest data suggests that most of the country is still trending down, with the increase driven by upticks in Texas, Arizona, California, and Washington.

The bottom line: This increase is relatively small and could be a blip or an early sign that declines could be fading. One month of data is not necessarily indicative of larger trends.

But we know proposed federal staff and funding cuts at SAMHSA and CDC are likely to threaten the decrease in overdose deaths that occurred last year.