Last week, Trump took action to impose tariffs of 25% on Canadian and Mexican goods and 10% on Chinese goods, set to take effect last Tuesday.
But: The tariffs were then put on hold for 30 days in Canada and Mexico amid negotiations with the Trump administration. But they did go into effect for China.
Why it’s important: The White House issued the tariffs due in part to concerns over fentanyl trafficking (as well as undocumented migration and the trade deficit) and paused them in response to further commitments from Canada and Mexico to address fentanyl trafficking.
The details:
Trump also revoked “de minimis” trade benefits on imports from China, Mexico and Canada. The program allows shipments worth $800 or less to enter the U.S. with less rigorous inspections and without paying duties. It has drawn scrutiny over concerns it has helped fuel the flow of illegal drugs like fentanyl and its precursor chemicals into the U.S.
The U.S. and Mexico agreed to a month-long pause on the implementation of tariffs. The deal includes Mexico sending 10,000 troops to the border to help control the flow of drugs and the U.S. helping to prevent gun trafficking to cartels.
The U.S. and Canada also agreed to delay the tariffs for a month in a deal that includes Canada providing more border personnel and hundreds of millions of dollars in anti-fentanyl enforcement. Canada has said it will appoint a “Fentanyl Czar,” list cartels as terrorists and issue a new intelligence directive on organized crime and fentanyl. The government has already deployed 60 additional U.S.-made drones to the border, two Black Hawk helicopters and extra canine teams, and plans to station 10,000 “frontline personnel” at the border.
But: It is not clear tariffs will help address the fentanyl crisis, and they may even have the opposite effect.
China has been cooperating: Under the Biden administration, the U.S. and China resumed counternarcotics cooperation. This resulted in China’s National Narcotics Control Commission warning companies not to sell fentanyl precursors, as well as new restrictions on several precursors and enhanced law enforcement collaboration. China has a sprawling chemicals industry, which makes further enforcement difficult. It is unclear how increased tariffs will help stanch the flow of precursors, other than building up negotiating leverage. But the tariffs could hurt the cause if Beijing decides it is unwilling to continue cooperation.
Canada plays almost no role in the U.S. fentanyl supply: Canada contributes less than 1% of fentanyl arriving in the U.S., with about 19 kg of fentanyl intercepted at the Canada-U.S. border last year compared with almost 9,600 kg at the border with Mexico. Canadian fentanyl that arrives in the U.S. tends to be sold on the dark web and shipped through the mail. Even before the tariffs were announced, Canadian law enforcement was cracking down on fentanyl producers. Fentanyl is just as big a public health threat in Canada as in the U.S.
Fentanyl trafficking from Mexico is hard to stop: The cartels have immense power and resources, and fentanyl is so profitable that they will continue to produce it even amid increased enforcement. Fentanyl can be made in small kitchens and makeshift labs using rudimentary cooking utensils, meaning even if the Mexican government shuts down labs, new ones will just pop up. Because fentanyl is so potent, it is shipped in small packages that are easy to transport and hide and hard to intercept. And most fentanyl is smuggled through legal ports of entry by U.S. citizens. Mexico already has thousands of troops stationed near the U.S. border, and it is unclear how much the additional troops promised in the deal can do to halt fentanyl trafficking.
The crisis was already improving at an unprecedented pace before the tariffs were announced.
Our take: Even if the tariffs were effective in reducing the supply of fentanyl, they would do nothing to address demand in the U.S. To address the overdose crisis, a public health approach that includes prevention, harm reduction, treatment and recovery efforts is needed.
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. appears poised to be confirmed as Department of Health and Human Services secretary this week.
The update:
After his hearings, the Senate Finance Committee voted 14-13 along party lines to advance his nomination to the full Senate for a floor vote.
After struggling to decide how he would cast his deciding vote, Sen. Cassidy joined all other Republicans on the committee in voting “yes” after receiving several commitments from Kennedy and the Trump administration on vaccines. There was also a broad pressure campaign from the White House and grassroots groups.
The full Senate voted yesterday along party lines to cut off debate on the nomination, putting Kennedy one vote away from confirmation.
No Republican senators have said they will vote against Kennedy.
What’s coming: A confirmation vote by the full Senate as soon as today. It is all but certain Kennedy will be confirmed.
The House passed the Halt All Lethal Trafficking of (HALT) Fentanyl Act.
The details:
The bill would permanently place fentanyl-related substances into Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act. They are currently scheduled into Schedule I through a temporary order set to expire March 31.
The bill would also make changes to make researching the substances easier, as researching Schedule I drugs is difficult due to strong restrictions.
The larger context: The expedited timeline for the bill’s consideration so early in the new Congress underscores that Republicans view responding to the opioid crisis as a top policy priority and a messaging winner, particularly by framing the issue in terms of trafficking and border security.
The reactions:
Supporters of the bill have argued it would give law enforcement more power to crack down on drug traffickers, since it would result in harsher sentences for fentanyl trafficking.
Democrats have been resistant to the bill in the past, arguing that it leaned too heavily on law enforcement, would exacerbate mass incarceration and would disproportionately target communities of color.
But: With Trump having successfully campaigned on cracking down on drug smugglers at the border, some Democrats are rethinking their stance. More Democrats voted in favor, compared to previous votes on the bill.
Others, however, still have these concerns. Many are also calling for a public health-focused approach, noting at hearings last week that the bill would not do anything to prevent deaths and does not provide additional resources for interdiction, prevention, treatment or recovery efforts.
Some also expressed frustration with the federal funding freeze, noting that federal funding is not getting out the door to help combat the overdose crisis.
What’s coming: The bill now goes to the Senate for consideration, where it is likely to pass.